Oxfam Action Corps NYC: April 2009

7-8:00 PM
At McNally-Jackson Books
52 Prince Street
between Lafayette and Mulberry
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Speaker's Corner

Oxfam Action Corps NYC Members Speak Out
Climate Change
By Dave Barwinski

By most all accounts, global warming is for real. Of course it's possible some evidence may appear to refute it; but as it stands, scientific evidence overwhelmingly supports the theory.

Even if it does turn out to be wrong, oil is a finite resource. One day we will need another source(s) (the infrastructure for which will take many, many years to implement), but until then crude oil will undoubtedly continue to rise in price. It's not a conspiracy, it's supply and demand. Expect to pay well over $10 a gallon for gas by 2020.

The third world nations, particularly in South Asia, will be affected most by global warming. In other words, the poorest of the poor. But since they don't factor into the world stage (see Darfur), this will be largely accepted. Us first-worlders will also certainly see more Katrina-like storms and devastating forest fires here in America.

Bush is concerned primarily with "economic growth" and "greater prosperity." The fact is our standard of living is the highest in the world. In other words, the big corporations must continue to make huge profits even it means irrevocable damage to the environment, preventable human suffering, etc. That's the unholy marriage of Wall St. and Washington for you.

We do not own the earth, we are mere stewards. One day we will be gone and posterity will assume stewardship.

Global Warming
by Dave Barwinski

In honor of Earth Day, listed below are the possible
consequences of climate change. I'm not an "alarmist", just stating the most reasonable position based on the available data (science is a good thing!).

First, the evidence, albeit a very abbreviated version. In the last hundred years or so (and at a more accelerated rate in the last 25 years), the earth's temperature has increased, sea levels have risen, glaciers have retreated, changes in seasonal
rainfall patterns have occurred, and extreme weather events have increased. These phenomena are consistent with a greater concentration of greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere. Every relevant scientific and environmental organization and the vast majority of scientists agree that this increase in greenhouse gases(particularly carbon-based ones), attributable to human activity, is very likely the cause of the accelerated warming in recent years.

The good news is that by altering our behavior, notably by reducing our usage of fossil fuels, increasingly relying on alternative sources of energy, and increasing efficiency and conservation, we can mitigate the effects. There's only so much oil on earth, anyway, and we're running out at an alarming rate (just ask Bush & Cheney!). Here are the possible deleterious effects of a warmer earth (the last 2 sections are far less discussed but of critical importance nonetheless):

WEATHER:
-a greater frequency of the most severe storms
-increased evaporation (due to warmer oceans) will lead to heavier rainfall, which will lead to more erosion This, in turn, can result in desertification due to deforestation (especially in vulnerable tropical areas such as Africa)

GLACIERS:
-"Since 1980, glacier retreat has become increasingly rapid and ubiquitous, and has threatened the existence of many of the glaciers of the world. The process has increased markedly since 1995." -U.K. Met Office
-glacier loss causes landslides, flash floods, and glacial lake overflow
-glacier loss would initially cause floods followed by droughts ("some areas of the most populated regions on Earth are likely to 'run out of water'" - Mauri Pelto, North Cascade Glacier Climate Project)

OCEANS:
-an increase in 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius corresponds to a sea level rise of 6 inches to 37 inches
-increased levels of carbon dioxide lead to acidification (could have an especially harmful effect on coral reefs)
-as the oceans warm they are less able to absorb carbon (oceans currently absorb about 50% of the greenhouse gases we produce)
-retreating of sea ice will contribute to greater warming as the ocean will absorb the light the ice would have reflected back into the atmosphere

FORESTS:
-forest fires may occur on larger scale and more regularly. Besides reducing the forest area, it releases stored carbon into the atmosphere.
-pine beetle infestation, due to lack of severe winters, has destroyed 50% of the pine forests in British Columbia. This will spread east across Canada and eventually into America if left unchecked.

ECOSYSTEMS:
-20-30% of species face increased risk of extinction should the temperature increase exceed 1.5-2.5 degrees Celsius, the percentage jumps to 40-70% should the temperature increase exceed 3.5 degrees Celsius (relative to 1980-1999 earth temperatures)
-possible loss of carbon from terrestrial ecosystems, leading to increase in carbon dioxide in atmosphere
-melting permafrost already occurring in Canada, Alaska, and Russia will increase bacterial activity in the soil and could lead to areas becoming carbon sources rather than carbon sinks (permafrost melting also releases methane, a gas far more harmful than carbon dioxide)

AGRICULTURE:
-"Rising atmospheric temperatures, longer droughts and
side-effects of both, such as higher levels of ground-level ozone gas, are likely to bring about a substantial reduction in crop yields in the coming decades" -Paul Brown, The Guardian
-Africa will probably be the worst hit since 70% of the populace rely on rain-fed agriculture

DISEASE:
-higher incidence of infectious disease such as dengue fever and malaria
-increase in insect-borne diseases in Europe
-150,000 deaths annually as a result of diseases related to climate change, according to the World Health Organization

ECONOMIC:
-global growth could be cut by 20% if sweeping changes are not made, according to the former Chief Economist of the World Bank, Nicholas Stern (as opposed to a cost of 1% of global GDP to combat the effects of climate change)
-"The combined effects of global warming may impact particularly harshly on people and countries without the resources to mitigate those effects. This may slow economic development and poverty reduction, and make it harder to achieve the Millenium Development Goals." -Michael Richards, Overseas Development Institute

SECURITY:
-"Climate change may be one of the causes of the Darfur conflict. The combination of decades of drought, desertification and overpopulation are among the causes of the conflict..." -John Vidal, The Guardian
-"...150 million environmental refugees will exist in the year 2050, due mainly to the effects of coastal flooding, shoreline erosion and agricultural disruption." -Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
-"An unstable climate will exacerbate some of the core drivers of conflict, such as migratory pressures and competition for resources." -U.S. Military Advisory Board
-"Armed conflict between nations over resources, such as the Nile and its tributaries, is likely..." -Center for Strategic and International Studies & Center for a New American Security

In the United States, we can expect greater water scarcity in the southwest, forest fire proliferation, more Katrina-like storms, and possible flooding of low-lying coastal regions. Besides, of course, the economic and security repercussions detailed above.

The Human Faces of Climate Change

Climate change is forcing vulnerable communities in poor countries to face unprecedented climate stress, including water scarcity and drought, severe weather events and floods, reduced agricultural productivity, and increased disease. The U.S. can improve our standing in the world community by showing that we are willing to take responsibility for the consequences of our greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptation is a critical issue for many vulnerable developing countries in international negotiations on a post-2012 climate treaty.

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